Background Info

Hi all , there are a few new registered followers this week so I thought I would post a little about how I select bets and what to expect in the coming weeks.

Firstly, race type, I look at class 3 and above plus some higher quality class 4 races. This cuts the number of potential races but over the years I have found that the lower class racing is too unpredictable, many of the horses in that class are in that class because they are inconsistent making spotting whether it's a going day or not all the more difficult.

Also, in the higher class, higher prize money races, horses tend to run more on their merits than in lower class races due to a combination of lower prize money and the new handicapper's habit of penalising placed horses as much as the winning horse. Stables with a well handicapped horse now want to be more confident that they can win before committing else they risk a rising mark with no win. I recently saw a horse that had been put up 5lbs for a 1 length win then 6 and 7lbs respectively for two 2nd places in the same class of race ending up with an 18lb rise for 1 win, so it is perfectly understandable.

I mostly look at handicaps but adapt my ratings calculation slightly to take in some pattern class sprint races as it still seems to work with those because, in the main, they are truly run, whereas pattern races over further can more often be tactical affairs with meaningless speed figures.

I avoid nurseries and 3yo only races as there is not enough form in the book and you are left guessing at what improvement they have in them.

Once I have selected a race I calculate my race-specific ratings. They identify which runners, if they perform to their best, on paper should win under the prevailing conditions .

I then look at form, draw, trainer form, jockey , odds etc and if a runner scores well on my ratings and everything else lines up then its a selection.

I will often back two against the field if their prices are right and though unusual this has worked well for me at the prices I target, keeping the money coming in even if the profit margin is a little lower.

So, as we are at the point of the season where meetings are thinner on the ground and many handicaps are aimed at 3yos there are not many races that produce a bet for me.

Once the season gets into full swing there will be more potential races and so more bets.

Today is a good example, from an initial 7 races there were only 3 that I could study. One looked wide open and I couldn't pick out even a potential.

In the 16:25 at Goodwood Spring Bloom was the top rated despite being 3lb out of the handicap but Dilligently and Uncle Don also scored well and both looked like they would go close this time so no bet for me.

In the 15:15 at Goodwood, Lexington Blitz runs and I have been waiting for him to come out again after his previous run where I backed him at 14/1 and he ran a blinder fading late into 3rd after forcing the pace. Today he is second on my ratings though to Rhythm n Hooves who ran in that same race and looked like he would be a real threat next time out. To complicate the race further Tropical Storm, a listed winner early last year who then disappointed , ran with promise last time in the same race as the other two mentioned after suffering early interference and has dropped 8lbs since his peak and been gelded.

So, no bet except I have put a combination forecast on with those three selections just for some interest

Tomorrow I have identified 7 races that I can study so hopefully I will identify at least one for a bet.